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Ned B. Wilson
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Introduction:
Tampa
Florida Keys Market Spotlight
The Florida Keys are a chain of islands off the southern tip of Florida and therefore only have one road that leads in and out of the market. This market is highly unique due to its location. Due to the transportation constraints, this specialized market relies on receiving many of their goods via ships. Luckily the city planners took this into account and have created many functional ports which allow for goods to come and go. Despite a dense population the Florida Keys receive the majority of their revenue from tourism. Home of one of the longest continuous coral reefs in the world this market has become a hotspot for international and domestic travelers alike.
State Overview:
Florida is a highly desirable state to live in according to the US Census there was over 300,000 citizens that moved to Florida in the last 12 months. There are various reasons why Florida is considered such a great place to live such as the temperate subtropical climate, no state income tax, and leading education standards compared to the rest of the country. According to the Florida Department of Education, Florida ranks 3rd in the nation and received its highest ranking ever in K-12 Achievement. The high ranking in education is a wonderful reason for more and more families to migrate to Florida.
Residential Real Estate is Roaring:
Throughout the last 12 months market the Florida Keys have become beneficiaries of the nationwide roaring housing market. With large amounts of monetary stimulus paired with historically low interest rates the consumers have been scrambling to buy homes due to their newfound discretionary income. Although with recessionary fears the federal reserve has raised interest rates thus pushing mortgage rates to nearly 8%. Despite the negative outlook on the overall housing market, the Florida Keys are
better positioned to be resilient through these trying times. Due to the tourism industry in the Florida Keys many of the homes are not actually primary residences, but they are owned by investors and rented out as vacation homes. Recent projections have shown that the cash flow will remain strong in the Florida Keys and will in turn strengthen the housing market.
Transportation
Education
Climate
Labor Force
Leadership
Tourism
Urban Planning
Tampa Market Spotlight
For many of the Tampa and Hillsborough County natives, it is no surprise that there has been an influx of residents from outside the state of Florida. The Tampa area is one of the most highly sought-after locations for retirement having close proximity to beaches and amusement parks. Many have seen the real estate boom as a perfect opportunity to sell their “overpriced” homes in major cities such as New York, and move to an affordable and desirable Tampa area. As a result, we have seen trends largely in real estate markets, and transportation needs in the Tampa area.
Tampa: Residential Real Estate
The Tampa real estate market has been one of the largest beneficiaries of the recent boom in the housing market. The data and statistics website “WalletHub” lists Tampa as the 9th fastest-growing city out of America’s large cities. Large cities are defined as cities with a population of over 300,000 people (McCann). This influx of residents to the Tampa area has an obvious impact on the supply and demand of the real estate market. In turn, we have seen drastic reductions of the supply of available homes and large increase in the demand for the ones left available. The supply and demand relationship has been the largest reason for an upward trend in the cost per home in Tampa. This can be closely attributed to the large influx of residents to the Tampa area as a result of migration from other states and an overall increase in urbanization. In his article “The Tampa real estate market: Stats and trends for 2022”, Jeff Rohde writes, “More than 126,000 new residents are forecast to move to the metropolitan area by 2024”. According to “WorldPopulationReview.com”, the current population of Tampa is 394,804. It is easy to notice that an increase of 126,000 residents is drastic to the total amount of residents in the area. As a result of the influx of new residents, the shift of the supply and demand curve is increasing the value of homes. The most common metric for the change in housing prices is the median house cost. RedFin.com provides useful metrics in analysis the trend of median housing costs. The graph shows that over the course of 5 years the median home changed from
around $225,000 to its current position at $390,000. This is a significant change in such a short time period. Further, the year-over-year change is situated at 18.6% growth. This is considerable growth in a quick time span. In some cases, this could be a cause for concern. The graph shows the last few months stagnating and taking a small dip. Such a large spike in the housing market could result in a period of downturn. Popular cities for retirement such as Tampa are somewhat protected by downturns in the market as they are frequently relocated to for retirement. This means that there will likely be a sustainable influx of new residents to keep the housing market in Tampa from taking a dive unless the housing market across all of America began to crash. In the event of a crash, Tampa locations would likely result in less loss than other cities. Other metrics that are cause for near-future concern are the “Homes Sold Above List Price” and “Homes with Price Drops”. Homes sold above list price has dropped by 16.4% in the past year now situated at 23.5% percent of homes selling about their list price (RedFin.com). Although they are still selling above list price, dropping by 16.4% indicated the housing boom could be ending in Tampa. Further support for this claim is the homes with price drops increasing by 10.5% in the past year, now at 40.9% (RedFin.com). This indicates that houses are not selling as quickly as they used to. This will increase the supply of houses in the market and reduce the values of homes. Price drops also lead buyers to believe something could be wrong with a particular house or poses risk to the buyer in the market as a whole.
Transportation in Tampa
Transportation has been an ongoing topic of concern for Tampa residents. The influx of residents to an overly crowded highway system has created one of the worst increases in traffic in the country. In the web article, “How Bad Is Tampa Traffic?”, Ethan Moser writes, “Tampa, Florida drivers lost an average of 76 hours to rush hour traffic in 2021 alone—making Tampa the 12th ranked city in the U.S. in terms of bad traffic.” This means Tampa residents are losing over 3 days of their life a year just sitting in traffic. This is not time spent traveling to work. This alone is due to time spent waiting in traffic jams. Not including the COVID-19 pandemic when less people were on the road, Tampa has been seeing a 3% increase in traffic congestion on a yearly basis (Moser). In Ylopo.com’s article, “How To Factor Your Commute Time In Your Home Buying Decision”, it reads, “Roughly 16% of working Americans picked either a ‘short commute to work’ or ‘nearby public transportation’ as the most important quality of the next neighborhood they would call home.” As a result of American’s home-buying preferences in relation to commute time, this will have an impact on the housing market if solutions are not made accordingly. Currently, public transportation is dismal in Tampa. Public bus stops are few and far between and there are no features such as a subway. Nevertheless, city officials have proposed new ideas for possible solutions as well as the implementation of a few large-scale projects.
The largest change the city of Tampa is making to curb its rising traffic problem is an implementation of a new bridge and overpass system in downtown Tampa. The bridge will replace the old Howard Frankland bridge while connecting to overpasses near prime locations in downtown for work and weekends. The new bridge will also feature two toll lanes in an effort to control traffic. Additionally, the bridge will feature bike lanes. The bridge is an effort to reduce traffic from St. Petersburg and Tampa residents who must cross the bridge for their daily commute to work. Another project that has been in the works for a number of years is a Tampa subway system. This project is still in the planning and proposition phase with the last proposition being denied by Gov. Desantis. As Tampa continues to grow, the need for a rail system in Tampa will increase. Among renovations to the existing infrastructures these changes are the most likely additions to the Tampa roadway system that can be expected in the future.
Works Cited
Florida Department of Education. (2022, November 1). Retrieved from Floridadepartmentofeducation.gov: https://www.fldoe.org/newsroom/latest-news/florida-moves-up-in-national-ranking.stml
Rocket Homes. (2022, October 30). Retrieved from RocketHomes.com: https://www.rockethomes.com/real-estate-trends/fl/key-largo
US Census Bureau. (2022, November 1). Retrieved from USCensusBureau.Gov: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/FL
McCann, Adam. “Fastest-Growing Cities in America.” WalletHub, 12 Oct. 2020, https://wallethub.com/edu/fastest-growing-cities/7010.
World Population Review. Tampa, Florida Population 2022, https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/tampa-fl-population.
Rohde, Jeff. “The Tampa Real Estate Market: Stats and Trends for 2022.” Learn Real Estate Investing, Roofstock Realty, Inc. [CA License #01995170], 15 June 2022, https://learn.roofstock.com/blog/tampa-real-estate-market#:~:text=PopulationgrowthintheTampa,themetropolitanareaby2040.
RedFin.com. “Tampa Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin.” RedFin.com, https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market.
(Enterprise), Ylopo. “How to Factor Your Commute Time in Your Home Buying Decision.” Ylopo, Ylopo, 5 Feb. 2021, https://www.ylopo.com/blog/how-to-factor-your-commute-time-in-your-home-buying-decision.
Moser, Ethan. “How Bad Is Tampa Traffic?” GetJerry.com, Jerry, Inc., 1 June 2022, https://getjerry.com/driving/tampa-traffic.