MEMORANDUM
TO: Rich DeLuca
FROM: John Smith
DATE: Oct. 24, 2017
SUBJECT: Changes in U.S. Retail
Recent market research reveals valuable insights that can greatly benefit Quanta Communications and the ways in which we guide our clients into the future. The research, cited below, explores the effects of both e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters on retail growth, sales, and employment levels. I believe this information can be very valuable to improving our consulting services and to predicting future changes in the overall retail market.
“The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War.” Published by the Economic Association, written by Ali Hortacsu & Chad Syverson, and appearing in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29.
Overview
Although e-commerce has made rapid advancements over the last several years, the data and analysis of the article instead points to warehouse clubs and supercenters as the true shapers of modern retail culture. Traditional retail centers, such as department stores, continue to decline in locations, sales, and employment, while warehouse clubs/supercenters, such as CostCo, Sam’s Club, and Walmart Supercenters, continue to grow.
E-commerce is expected to play a significant role in the future, but it presently remains at only a small percentage of total retail sales. Warehouse clubs/supercenters display the most growth and largest portion of sales in the U.S. retail sector.
Key Questions
The authors seek to understand the impacts of e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters on U.S. retail. They do so by exploring the decline of traditional department stores, predictions of e-commerce saturation, the future of physical retail locations, and whether e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters will ultimately replace or complement one another.
Data Collection
Data was collected from multiple sources, including US Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey data, US Census Retail E-Stats, Statistics of US Businesses, US Census data, and US Economic Census data.
Statistical Techniques
Most data referenced in the article appears on straightforward, plotted graphs, or in charts with accompanying percentages. The authors’ prediction of future e-commerce sales, however, uses an S-curve (or logistic diffusion curve) to display annual, plotted data, showing the development to year 2054 in eleven different product categories.
Results
The data highlights the trends of e-commerce sales and employment vs. the trends of warehouse clubs/super centers sales and employment. One such figure displays, from years 1990-2015, the rises and falls of employment by industry group. Warehouse club/supercenter employment doubled from 2000 to 2014 (+600,000 jobs), while traditional discount department stores lost 350,000 jobs. Every new warehouse club/supercenter store equals a drop in department stores by 0.686.
Data collected from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a steady level of total employment in the retail sector. No significant loss of jobs has been reported. Additionally, each 12 three-digit NAICS retail industry, save for gasoline, has seen steady employment growth since 1990.
The four largest warehouse clubs/supercenters accounted for nearly 8% of total retail sales in 2012, 50% more than all e-commerce retail sales combined in that year.
Conclusions
The authors repeat that while e-commerce growth is expected to grow exponentially, its growth relative to all retail sales remains modest. Even at maximum e-commerce capacity, these total retail sales would be less than 20 percent of all total retail sales.
Warehouse clubs/supercenters find success by borrowing the logistics techniques of wholesale sellers in order to keep prices as low as possible for consumers. Additionally, they use information technology in the back end (manufacturing, distribution, inventory management), not just through the front end (websites, advertising).
To summarize: E-commerce retail leads to smaller employment firms, less market concentration, more geographical dispersion, and higher productivity. Warehouse clubs/supercenters lead to higher employment firms, very high market concentration, locations near population centers, and lower productivity relative to online channels.
Applications
It is important that our firm routinely reevaluates changing market environments, so as to consistently provide updated, forward-thinking consultation to our clients. Although there is a hype placed on e-commerce, it is important that the benefits of physical retail are not forgotten, especially in the forms of warehouse clubs and supercenters. It is possible that e-commerce and warehouse clubs/super centers can complement one another, rather than competing to completely substitute the other. The two can grow together, rather than against each other.
I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have regarding this article and the data contained within it. I would also be happy to conduct further research on the subject at your request.