Pilot Shortages and the Effects on Airline Management<\/p>\n
Embry Riddle Aeronautical University<\/p>\n
Pilot Shortage<\/p>\n
Research shows that there is a significant shortage of qualified and experienced pilots globally for many years which puts airlines at risk. In this case, many regions across the globe have been unable to hire adequate pilots to meet the demand and fuel future growth in the airline industry (Bidaisee, 2021). The shortage of pilots results from multiple factors that have contributed to the problem over time. One of the major causes of the shortage is the growing demand for air travel in the U.S. and globally, creating the pilot staffing gap. This shortage has the potential to impact a significant portion of the population negatively. In this case, this research aims to highlight how pilot shortage has affected the airline industry and establish ways to revive the industry. The research will also review the problems aspiring pilots face when joining the airline industry to help determine factors that hinder entry into pilot careers leading to the shortage. Finally, this research will offer various recommendations for addressing the pilot shortage problem. <\/p>\n
Background<\/p>\n
According to O’Neil (2019), 2018 recorded over 4 billion airplane passengers. Research shows that this figure will double by 2036 due to the expected growth in the airline industry. However, one would expect that the number of pilots joining the industry matches the industry growth to meet the demand. This is not the case since the number of pilots is shrinking. For instance, the FAA reports that as of 1987, the U.S had approximately 827,000 pilots (O’Neil, 2019)). However, this number has reduced by about a third. Predictions show that an estimated 790,000 new pilots will be needed by 2037 in the industry to address the pilot shortage problem and meet the industry growth-related demand for pilots.<\/p>\n
Various factors have contributed to the pilot shortage problem. For instance, some of the factors include a significantly high number of retiring pilots. For instance, Person (2020) provides that over 50% of pilots who fly today are baby boomers, and over half of this population, especially those working in the U.S Airlines, will be retiring in the next ten years. In this case, the change of the retirement age by Congress from 60 to 65 years old caused problems in the long term. For instance, the move helped the industry in the short term by providing labor. However, this costs the dreams of young people aspiring to be pilots and forces them to seek other careers rather than aviation (Person, 2020). The increased use of early retirement programs will also contribute to the problem since the number of new pilots replacing retiring ones is significantly low. <\/p>\n
The other factor that contributed to the shortage is the reducing number of military pilots. In the 80s, over two-thirds of pilots were trained through military aviation service. However, this number has reduced significantly due to the increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the service. This means those aspiring to be pilots must pay for aviation training. However, the cost of training is way beyond affordable as it could go above $100,000 (O’Neil, 2019). Another factor was the introduction of stricter requirements for acquiring an air transport pilot certificate (ATP). For instance, the required training hours for co-pilots were increased from 250 hours to at least 1,500 hours and an additional 1,000 flight hours to become a captain. Lastly, the Airline Deregulation Act also played a crucial role in promoting pilot shortage. For instance, the law led to the development of a free market for commercial airlines leading to the increased number of flights. This growth was not at par with the entry of new pilots. <\/p>\n
Although the large American Airlines are yet to experience the effects of the pilot shortage, small players have suffered the consequences leading to bankruptcy. According to Bailey (2021), it is not a matter of whether pilot shortage will continue post-covid-19 but when and how significant it will impact the industry. The pilot shortage problem will be reduced in 2020\/2021 due to travel restrictions, but the problem is not over yet as the shortage will continue as the economy recovers and traffic picks up. For instance, estimates show that there might be a gap of about 34,000 to 50,000 pilots by 2025 (Murray, 2021). In this case, it is necessary to research the root cause of the problem and address it to prevent the associated consequences. For instance, the pilot shortage may lead to overbooking, fare hikes, and a significant number of canceled flight routes. This will affect a significant portion of the population. <\/p>\n
Literature Review<\/p>\n
The pilot shortage problem can be traced back to post 9\/11. For instance, the airline industry experienced a stable balance of supply and demand prior to 9\/11 as pilots could be hired effectively. However, the 9\/11 event caused an aviation downturn leading to changes in the entire industry. In this case, the airlines faced financial hardships since the hijacking of airplanes and following regulations requiring passenger screening led to a loss of confidence among passengers leading to loss of business. Most of the airlines stopped hiring new pilots, and existing ones were furloughed. Those who remained in service were forced to take pay cuts to sustain the business due to the reduced size of operations. Although the U.S government gave the airlines $10 billion worth of loans to stabilize air transportation, over six major airlines filed bankruptcy, including Delta, United, U.S. Airways, Northwest, and American Airlines (Gall, 2018). Building the Airline industry was an uphill battle after 9\/11. This was exacerbated by the economic recession of 2008 in the U.S, which caused additional pay cuts, labor renegotiations, layoffs, and a further decrease in the size of operations. 1,500.<\/p>\n
In 2009, the crashing of Colgan Air Flight that led to the death of 51 people caused more problems for the airline industry. For instance, the National Transport and Safety Board (NTSB) made recommendations that forced Congress to impose stricter minimum experience\/requirements needed to hold an air transport license (ATP). For instance, the minimum flight hours were raised from 250 hours to 1,500 hours to ensure the first officer gets a strong foundation of aviation knowledge before flying a commercial flight (Duquette, 2014). On the other hand, military pilots transitioning to commercial pilot programs reduced their flight hours, making them eligible faster than civilian pilots (Bjerke et al., 2016). This forced aspiring pilots to change careers. <\/p>\n
Today, pilot shortage affects all aviation resources from military, cargo, passenger airlines, and others. This has forced the military to increase compensation for their pilots as a retention strategy to prevent them from seeking better pay in the commercial airlines (Myers, 2019). In this case, the pilot shortage is becoming a global pandemic since the demand for pilots exceeds supply by far. In addition, Withrow (2017) argues that the U.S has been hit by pilot shortage problems sooner than expected, leading to reduced services and increased hiring. The shortage is also more severe than expected, as evidenced by the bankruptcy filing by Portland-based carrier startup in 2016 due to pilot shortage. Although the airlines are accelerating their hiring practices, they cannot hire anyone for the position since someone with over 1,500 hours of flight experience is needed. In this case, getting a pipeline of new pilots is an issue of concern among airlines in the U.S and globally. Studies also indicate that the root cause of pilot shortage varies by region. For instance, the barrier to entry, such as the high cost of training, reduced number of transitioning military pilots, and a large number of aging pilots who face mandatory retirement, are major causes of pilot shortage in the U.S (Murray, 2021). On the other hand, Asia and other regions are experiencing an increase in the middle class who prefer air travel leading to increased demand for pilots. <\/p>\n
In this case, most of the literature agrees that despite the reducing pool of airline pilots, the demand for air travel continues to increase and is expected to double in the next two decades. This has created a situation where airlines struggle to fill their cockpits with qualified and experienced pilots (Gall, 2018). However, the mismatch will likely cause problems for the U.S airline industry. Even if many young people aspire to be pilots in the future, achieving their dreams is hindered by the high training cost that could exceed $100,000 (O’Neil, 2019). In this case, most of them are unwilling to take the risk, especially considering the limited number of grants and the inability to secure loans and scholarships to finance the training. One of the major gaps in the literature is that most research studies focus on evaluating the factors that contribute to pilot shortage in the U.S and other regions. However, few studies focus on the steps that have been taken or need to be taken by industry players to address the problem. In this case, this research study hopes to address this gap by recommending ways to address the pilot shortage problem.<\/p>\n
Research Findings<\/p>\n
The research findings on pilot shortage in the U.S indicate that airlines will continue to experience the shortage in the coming years. The factors found to initiate the rooming pilot shortage include the financial impact of the 9\/11 events and the following economic recession of 2008. For instance, the airline industry was stable prior to 9\/11 with balanced demand and supply of pilots. However, the 9\/11 situation resulted in financial turmoil due to the canceled flights, closed down airports, and reduced demand for air transport months after the attack. Airlines were also forced to invest heavily in safety measures leading to financial problems that led to increased layoffs, salary cuts, and bankruptcy of major airlines, including Northwest, America Airlines, Delta, and United Airlines (Gall, 2018). The 2008 economic recession also contributed to financial hardships forcing qualified pilots to look for alternative careers. <\/p>\n
Research also shows that the increasing demand for air travel in the U.S and other parts of the world has increased demand for new pilots (Gall, 2018). The domestic airline industry in North America is also on a trajectory of continued growth passengers. For instance, Boeing predicts a need for over 8,300 more airplanes in the next20 years and approximately 790,000 new pilots by 2037 (Boeing, 2016; Garcia, 2018). Despite the increasing growth of the Airline industry, there is a mismatch of supply of well-trained pilots, widening the pilot gap further. In addition, ex-pat pilots have contributed to the current pilot shortage in the U.S. For instance, Asia and the Middle East regions are experiencing significant economic growth and increased demand for air travel due to the expansion of the middle class. In this case, these regions offer attractive compensation packages to pilots costing the U.S airlines experienced pilots (Garcia, 2018). <\/p>\n
Other findings are that there is an increasing number of retiring pilots than those joining the airline industry. This is taking a large number of qualified pilots. Considering that over half of the current pilots are baby boomers, a pilot shortage will be experienced as half of this population reach retiring age in the next ten years (O’Neil, 2019). In addition, results show that the changes in safety requirements in the airline industry have also contributed to pilot shortages. For instance, the 1,500-hour rule that followed the Colgan crash of 2009 caused the imposition of stricter requirements for acquiring an air transport license. Initially, commercial co-pilots were required to have 250 minimum flight hours to become the first officer (Duquette, 2014). Pilots also need 1000 more flight hours to serve as captains meaning longer training periods to earn a license (Garcia, 2018). <\/p>\n
In addition, airlines are experiencing a reduced supply of military pilots. Four decades ago, 70% of pilots were from the military since they were considered to have excellent training and experience. However, this number has reduced to less than a third due to the military’s increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles (Gall, 2018). Also, the military is also facing challenges meeting their pilot demands, and they are keeping the ones they have. This means that people aspiring to be pilots cover their training cost, which is highly expensive (about $100,000). In this case, many people are less willing to take huge financial risks with no assurance of jobs.<\/p>\n
Research findings also show that the airline industry is facing significant effects of the pilot shortage problem. For instance, regional airlines face problems maintaining their pilots who move to the larger airlines due to better pay and career development opportunities. This is causing the regional airlines financial losses, which lead to bankruptcy. For instance, the lack of pilots forced Republic Airways to file bankruptcy since it could not meet the minimum flight requirement. In addition, the pilot shortage is expected to impact the population negatively through increased overbooking, an increase in canceled flights, fare hikes, and continued filing for bankruptcy by airlines. <\/p>\n
Conclusion of Findings <\/p>\n
The research findings indicate that the pilot shortage problem is more of a pandemic than a U.S problem since the problem runs across the globe. This problem has been driven by multiple factors that could significantly impact the global airline industry. For instance, the financial crisis associated with the 9\/11 events and the economic recession in 2008 contributed to the problem. In addition, factors such as high training fees, low salaries act as barriers to entry to the airline industry. Also, reduced supply of military pilots, stricter safety laws and requirements such as the 1,500-hour rule, increasing growth of the airline industry, and pilot demand are some of the factors that have contributed to pilot shortage. A large pool of experienced pilots also faces mandatory retirement exacerbating the pilot shortage problem. In this case, airlines must develop lasting solutions to the pilot shortage problem, or they risk facing a global crisis that will cause supply chains to suffer.<\/p>\n
Recommendations<\/p>\n
Following the research findings, it is evident there is a need for an immediate solution to the pilot shortage problem. The first recommendation is that airlines must find ways to develop their own pipeline. This can be achieved if airlines start to recruit and train their own pilot candidates. For instance, Airlines like JetBlue are giving their employees who aspire to be pilots an opportunity to train for aircrafts the company owns (O’Neil, 2019). Also, Delta Airlines introduced the American Airlines Cadet Academy with the aim of recruiting its future pilots. In this case, airlines must take pilot training in-house and support their trainees while reducing the certification barriers.<\/p>\n
Second, Airlines need to consider increasing their pilots’ salaries and benefits packages. For instance, the pilot position has always been a respected career in society. The increasing demand for pilots means that firms must agree to offer attractive compensation packages and bonuses to their pilots to prevent pilot ex-pats and drain. Pay increment will also encourage aspiring pilots to spend\/risk their money for pilot training, likely increasing the number of new pilots in the industry and reducing the shortage gap. Encouraging more women to join pilot careers through women recruitment will also work towards addressing the shortage gap. For instance, over 90% of pilots in the industry are men, with women represented by only 6% (Garcia, 2018). In this case, utilizing the other half of the world population by recruiting the underrepresented women population makes sense. However, this is a long-term solution since training new pilots takes time. <\/p>\n
The final recommendation involves utilizing artificial intelligence technology to address the problem. For instance, the technology could help automate cockpit processes relieving the demand. Also, the approach could help achieve single-pilot cockpits (Sweet, 20202). Other options will involve relaxing the strict aviation rules by increasing the mandatory retirement rule, lowering the minimum flight hours required to ensure more pilots qualify for certification. Considering that the airline crisis is closer, airlines must find a solution to the pilot shortage challenge sooner.<\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
In conclusion, the pilot shortage is a significant problem in the U.S and has been driven by multiple factors. This ranges from entry barriers, high training fees, low number of military pilots, and increased number of pilots reaching mandatory retirement age. The problem is spreading globally despite the increased growth in domestic and international travel. Pilot shortage could affect a large population leading to hiked fares, canceled flights, overbooking, and bankruptcy. In this case, airlines and other players in the industry must make significant changes to address the problem. This could involve reviewing the requirements for ATP license acquisition to amend the 1,500-hour rule, extending the retirement age, and other changes that will help close the gap between pilot demand and supply.<\/p>\n
References<\/p>\n
Bailey, J. (2021). Wow: By 2030, there could be a pilot shortage of 60,000. Simple Flying. Retrieved from https:\/\/simpleflying.com\/pilot-shortage\/<\/p>\n
Bidaisee, S. (2021). COVID-19 and aviation. Journal of Infectious Diseases & Case Reports. SRC\/JIDSCR-156. DOI: https:\/\/doi. org\/10.47363\/JIDSCR\/2021 (2), 141, 2-6.<\/p>\n
Bjerke, E., Smith, G., Smith, M., Christensen, C., Carney, T., Craig, P., & Niemczyk, M. (2016) Pilot source study 2015: U. S regional airline pilot hiring background characteristic changes consequent to public law 111-216 and the FAA first officer qualifications rule. \u00a0Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering 5(2), Article 1.\u00a0https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7771\/2159-6670.1133<\/p>\n
Boeing. (2016). Current market outlook 2016\u20132035. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.boeing.com\/resources\/boeingdotcom\/commercial\/about-our-market\/assets\/downloads\/cmo_print_2016_final.pdf<\/p>\n
Duquette, A. (2014, September 19). Press Release \u2013 FAA Boosts Aviation Safety with New Pilot Qualification Standards. Press release \u2013 faa boosts aviation safety with new pilot qualification standards. https:\/\/www.faa.gov\/news\/press_releases\/news_story.cfm?newsId=14838. <\/p>\n
Gall, P. (2018). The U.S. is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots. The Conversation. Retrieved from https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-us-is-facing-a-serious-shortage-of-airline-pilots-95699<\/p>\n
Garcia, M. (2018). A ‘perfect storm’ pilot shortage threatens global aviation. Forbes. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/marisagarcia\/2018\/07\/27\/a-perfect-storm-pilot-shortage-threatens-global-aviation-even-private-jets\/?sh=14a3f17c1549<\/p>\n
Murray, G. (2021). After Covid-19, Aviation Faces a Pilot Shortage. Oliver Wyman. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.oliverwyman.com\/our-expertise\/insights\/2021\/mar\/after-covid-19-aviation-faces-a-pilot-shortage.html<\/p>\n
Myres, M. (2019). The pilot shortage: The Army’s struggle to fix its aviation problems. Army Times. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.armytimes.com\/news\/your-army\/2019\/08\/07\/the-pilot-shortage-the-armysstruggle-to-fix-its-aviation-problems\/<\/p>\n
O’Neil, M. (2019). Why is there a pilot shortage, and how can we fix it? Mountain Aviation. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.mountainaviation.com\/2019\/06\/25\/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-and-how-can-we-fix-it\/<\/p>\n
Pearson, J. (2020) Engaging the next generation of aviation professionals. Suzanne K. Kearns, Timothy J. Mavin, and Steven Hodge (Eds.) New York: Routledge.<\/p>\n
Sweet, H. (2020). How The Pilot Shortage Will Affect Your Supply Chain. Kenco. Retrieved from https:\/\/blog.kencogroup.com\/how-the-cargo-pilot-shortage-will-affect-your-supply-chain<\/p>\n
Withrow, S., & Stawicki Azam, M. (2017). The pull of the pilot shortage. Lift Magazine. Retrieved March 31, 2018, from https:\/\/lift.erau.edu\/pilot-shortage\/<\/p>\n
References<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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